Mastering 2025 Freight Contract Negotiations: Insights from the Experts

NAC season is here, and it’s kicking off earlier than usual in 2025 due to an early Chinese New Year. This critical time in the freight calendar sets the tone for the year ahead, offering shippers a chance to build stability and efficiency into their supply chain.

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Success in this year's negotiations will hinge on how effectively shippers leverage data and visibility to make smarter, faster decisions. To help you approach the 2025 contract season with confidence, we’ve pulled together our expert tips for grounding your strategy in visibility, flexibility, and foresight.

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Key Timings.

NAC season is looking a little different this year. The earlier Chinese New Year in 2025 has shifted the timeline for contracting and planning. While timings remain at the mercy of shipping lines, here’s what we’ve been told to expect:

Contracting Key Milestones

• 1-28 February: Carriers' global sales conferences take place, to set trade directions and allocations. 
• Feb 13 onwards: NAC submissions open post-CNY
• Mid February - End of March: Negotiations take place
• Early March: Target to finalise contracts for April Shipments

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Market Dynamics: 

The volatility of 2024 is expected to persist into 2025. Key factors shaping the market and negotiations include:

• Red Sea Operations to Resume: Following a ceasefire in Gaza, shipping lines are predicted to return to the Red Sea, increasing capacity and driving rates down.
• Slower TEU demand growth: Predicted to drop from 4.5% in 2024 to 3% in 2025. 
• Alliance reshuffles: Changes in alliances will require extra diligence to ensure reliability and coverage.
• Carrier restrictions: Some carriers have indicated they will not accept new forwarder contracts from China.
• FAK/NAC dynamics: A 1:1 NAC/FAK ratio is being favoured by some carriers, which could challenge NAC viability for some shippers. .
• Space guarantees: As seen in 2024, carriers may not offer reliable space guarantees, making flexibility key.

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The Role of Visibility in Long-Term Procurement

Visibility is the cornerstone of smarter supply chain decisions. Businesses with optimised supply chains benefit from:

• 15% lower supply chain costs
• 50% less in inventory holdings
• 3X faster cash-to-cash cycles

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When it comes to NACs, real-time visibility enables you to:

• Adjust proactively to capacity and demand shifts.
• Hold carriers accountable to service levels and pricing terms.
• Identify new opportunities, such as sustainability initiatives or shared risk models.

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Case Study: In 2024, Explorate partnered with a national retailer to establish a single source of truth for supply chain data. By optimising processes and improving visibility, they achieved:

• 4X increase in PO Management capacity
• 15 hours saved weekly on supply chain administration.
• 5% increase in container utilisation

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Tried-and-Tested Guide to NAC Success.

At Explorate, our job is to help teams build the most efficient, effective and sustainable supply chain for their business. Here’s our tried and tested guide to ensure contracts are successful by design - from negotiation to completion.

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1. Know the Market 

Understanding freight market trends is critical to negotiating from a confident position. 

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How? Analyse historical rate patterns on your trade lanes, comparing contracted and spot freight rates. This will help you assess whether the rates offered make sense for your supply chain in the short and long term.

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Expert Tip:  Year-on-year rate comparisons reveal hidden cost-saving opportunities on volatile trade lanes like NE Asia to Australia. To access detailed data and real-time insights into key trade lanes, start a free trial of the Explorate app.

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2. Benchmark Performance

Benchmarking your supply chain performance ensures you’re getting the best value and service by identifying gaps, uncovering opportunities for improvement, and keeping freight forwarders accountable. 

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How? Compare performance across carriers, forwarders and trade lanes using 2024 data to evaluate rates, transit times, and schedule reliability. Use trusted sources such as:

• Rates: Drewry World Container Index, Explorate 
• Transit Time: Explorate 
• Schedule Reliability: Sea Intelligence

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Expert Tip:  Review volume utilisation and renegotiate under-performing contracts to optimise allocations. For easy access to freight benchmarking data, subscribe to our fortnightly APAC Freight Market Update on LinkedIn.

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3. Optimise NAC, Spot, and Multi-Forwarder Allocations

Balancing freight allocation across NAC contracts, the spot market, and multiple forwarders is a good way to mitigate risk, maintain flexibility, and ensure cost efficiency. Here is a guideline to allocation percentages in 2025:

• NAC Contracts (40-50%): Secure fixed rates and capacity for priority trade lanes.
• Spot Market (50-60%): Capitalise on rate drops or disruptions.
• Strategic Multi-Forwarder Allocation: Diversify forwarders to spread risk and enhance flexibility on volatile trade lanes.

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Expert Tip: If you can’t secure an NAC, diversifying forwarders may be your best strategy. It helps spread risk, maintain flexibility, and secure competitive rates even in volatile markets. Learn more about this approach on our blog: Mastering Supply Chain Flexibility: The Case for a Multi-Forwarder Strategy.

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Expert Recommendations for Navigating 2025

1. Integrate Real-Time Data: Use freight intelligence during negotiations and in-season adjustments to track trends, booking reliability, and performance.‍
2. Collaborate across Teams: Create a single source of truth that makes it easier for procurement, logistics, and finance teams to stay aligned and minimise risk.
3. Focus on Resilience over Rates: Strategic partnerships unlock long-term benefits, such as capacity-sharing agreements and sustainability initiatives. Look for partners who share this approach.

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Take the First Step Toward Smarter Procurement

2025 presents both challenges and opportunities to reimagine your supply chain strategy. By planning ahead and leveraging data, you can deliver real value—not just for this year, but for the future.

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Ready to get started?

• Upload your container numbers and start a free trial today - https://www.explorate.co/product 
• Speak with our experts to explore tailored insights for your business - https://www.explorate.co/contact 

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