Carriers have seen a cooling of demand ex China in the second half of June, which has resulted in only marginal increases in rates effective 15/06.
Maersk PSS, (released 12th June), has been successfully implemented. Other carriers are set to follow suit from the 1st of July.
SCFI (Shanghai Containerized Freight Index) is sitting above USD 2700 per FFE in late June. We are currently seeing spot pricing varying from USD 1300 - 1700 per TEU ex base port China to AUEC.
Rates into the West Coast of Australia have resulted in a substantial increase - July pricing is anticipated at levels above USD 1000 per TEU. This is largely driven by transshipment ports exhibiting heavy congestion which impacts AUWC sailings.
SEA pricing is slightly less volatile, with pricing varying from USD 800-1200 per TEU from the 1st of July.
Capacity:
Many carriers are redeploying their larger vessels to the Asia-Europe/US trades. This will only further exacerbate capacity issues for APAC with a capacity crunch expected in Q3, the typical peak season.
Global port congestion has reached an 18-month high. 60% of vessels at anchor are located in Asia, with a total of 2.4 million TEU awaiting anchorage as of mid-June.
Vessels are still being re-routed around the Cape of Good Hope to avoid attacks in the Red Sea. This is resulting in severe bottlenecks at many Asian ports - namely: Singapore, Port Klang, and Tanjung Pelepas, with even Shanghai and Qingdao impacted.
I would recommend that you pre-book, 3-4 weeks in advance wherever possible.
Schedule Reliability:
Schedule reliability reversed its improving trend and declined by -2.5 percentage points M/M in April 2024. This figure is now only 0.6 percentage points higher than the lowest YTD point of January 2024.
Wan Hai was the most reliable top-13 carrier in April 2024 with schedule reliability of 59.0%. Evergreen followed with schedule reliability of 53.2%. There were another 4 carriers above the 50% mark. ZIM was the least reliable carrier with schedule reliability of 44.2%. Only CMA CGM and Evergreen were able to record a M/M improvement in schedule reliability in April 2024, with both of 1.3 percentage points each. Source: https://www.sea-intelligence.com/press-room/268-global-schedule-reliability-dropped-back-to-january-2024-levels
Equipment shortages are severe in the majority of Asia's main loading ports. Carriers are attempting to reposition empties, however, this will be a lingering problem for shippers in the short term.
Port Congestion:
Congestion in Singapore has hit its worst levels since the pandemic, with delays of up to a week for vessels to berth. This is primarily caused by changes to shipping schedules after longer voyages around the Cape of Good Hope, leading to missed weekly sailings.
Some carriers are omitting Singapore altogether to maintain shipping schedules. This directly impacts the West Coast trade, with most carriers transiting via a SEA port.
"The Cape of Good Hope diversions have affected about 90 percent of the container ship traffic that once passed through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. Each diversion adds about $1 million in fuel costs and 1-2 weeks of voyage time, but saves the shipowner up to one percent of the vessel's value in war risk insurance costs." Source: The Maritime Exclusive.
USA Market:
The cargo ship, Dali, has left the port of Baltimore for the first time since crashing into the Francis Scott Key Bridge. The vessel left the city on Monday, almost 3 months since its disastrous collision with the bridge, that killed 6 people. The Baltimore Captain of the Port has opened the Fort McHenry Limited Access Channel to commercial vessel traffic, however, the situation remains fluid.
The SCFI for USWC has reached a two-year high. Capacity remains an issue ex Asia. Rates are in excess of USD 7000 per 40'.
Equipment shortages persist in the US, particularly for shippers loading at inland ports. This is only further exacerbated by vessel re-routing and congestion at hubs in Asia.
US export volume is up 4.9% YoY, meaning the country’s container trade imbalance for the month was 2.26 in favour of imports, with Houston and Los Angeles remaining the preferred gateways.
North Europe hubs are operationally sound, with freight pricing to APAC remaining stable for July.
Heavy floods in Germany have impacted overland capabilities, resulting in train cancellations and road closures in some areas.
Airfreight Update:
Asia Pacific air cargo demand is up 20% YoY, largely driven by e-commerce demand.
Global international air cargo capacity is up+9% this month.
Freighter operators have seen their volumes pick up by 6% in the first five months of the year.
Capacity constraints remain in key markets such as Asia to EU/US.
Retail giants - Shein & Temu are shipping approximately 9000 tonnes of cargo daily, driving pricing to unprecedented levels. This is further exacerbated by dire ocean freight conditions, resulting in further demand for air cargo.
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