Shipping lines are currently feeling tremendous pressure to fill vessels leaving China and heading to Australia and New Zealand in the last week of November. This is because many importers are postponing their shipments to avoid them arriving during the Christmas or New Year holiday period.
The rates have dropped significantly in the second half of November, however, the premium services (A3) remain high. A rate war is likely to break out any minute.
AUN (Maersk) service remains the most competitive. Rate levels sit at USD3900 per FEU.
CAT/CA2 (TSL/PIL/YML/EMC/SNL/SEALEAD) service is sitting at USD4000 per FEU from 23rd November.
NEAX (HMM/EMC/ONE/HPL) service is also being offered at USD4000 per FEU from 23rd November.
Panda (MSC/ZIM) service is sitting at USD4000 per FEU, with fast sailings to BNE.
Premium services (A3S/A3C/JKN) with Cosco/ANL/OOCL are topping the market. Rates are sitting at USD4200 per FEU from the 23rd November.
Rates ex South East Asia are starting to come down in the second half of November. Space/Capacity will become more available leading into the end of the year.
Rates ex MY/TH/VN/KR are now at USD3850 per FEU.
Rates ex SG are sitting at USD3300 per FEU.
Now is the time to take advantage of the lower freight pricing ahead of the early Chinese New Year in January 2025.
The Drewry WCI composite index remained stable at $3,440 per feu, which is 67% below the previous pandemic peak of $10,377 in September 2021 but 142% more than the average $1,420 in 2019 (pre-pandemic).
Drewry’s new Intra-Asia Container Index (IACI), a weighted average of regional spot container freight rates, increased 45% to $829 per 40ft container in the past fortnight
GRIs
MSC is implementing a GRI of USD300 per TEU ex China, Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan to Australia East Coast ports (Brisbane, Melbourne, Sydney, and Bell Bay). This takes effect on 1st December 2024.
Maersk is implementing a PSS of USD1000 per TEU ex China, Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Mongolia, Taiwan to Australia. This is effective from the 1st December 2024.
ANL is implementing a GRI of USD300 per TEU ex North East Asia to Australia’s East Coast This will take effect from 1st December 2024.
Australian Ports:
Port congestion continues to be problematic across various ports in Australia. Please prepare for delays.
Capacity:
Most of the containers accumulated during the long holiday have been shipped. As a large number of goods need to arrive before the Christmas holiday, the shipments departing in the next two weeks will still have serious rolling issues.
Due to the impact of last week's typhoon (Kong-rey) and severe port congestion, most of the vessels departing last week had very serious delays, and some vessels had delays of more than 10 days, especially the vessels of CAT/CA2 services. Some of their vessels for the second half of the month are expected to be delayed until December, so they only have one vessel departing in late November.
TSL continued to launch 2 extra vessels in late November, so their rate reduction was the largest. Based on our recent observations of these overtime vessels, most of them had serious delays.
MSC has announced that they will operate a new direct service from China to FREMANTLE, with a loading capacity of 1,800 TEU. They will operate the service independently. This service will ease the shipping pressure to the West Coast.
The route is as follows: SHANGHAI-HONGKONG-JAKARTA-FREMANTLE
Extra loaders:
Schedule Reliability:
Due to schedule delays and prevailing conditions, A3 Consortium has agreed for A3S service to slide by 1 week from COSCO SINGAPORE 186S/186N to assist with schedule recovery.
A3N service will have a blank sailing on the 14th December sailing ex TAO.
JKN service will have a blank sailing on the 25th December sailing ex HKG.
NEAX service will have a blank sailing on the 29th November sailing ex YTN.
Sea Intelligence developed a composite score to determine the most reliable of the top 13 global carriers. Maersk was at the top of the composite rankings, having ranked 1st on a trade lane 16% of the time and within the top-3 44% of the time. ZIM followed, having been ranked 1st 17% of the time and within the top 3 39% of the time. CMA CGM, MSC, and PIL rounded out the top 5, while ONE was at the bottom with the lowest composite score. ONE was ranked 1st on a trade lane only 2% of the time and was within the top 3 30% of the time.
In the wake of Typhoon Kong-rey which struck Taiwan and China in early November, the Kaohsiung and Ningbo ports have seen the sharpest increase in delays. Source: JOC
In response to the pandemic, in 2021 the Canadian Government limited the number of flights operated by Chinese carriers to Canada to two scheduled round-trip passenger flights a week, raised the following year to six. These orders also prohibited non-stop flights. Ottawa has now rescinded the order, opening the way for Chinese, and Canadian, airlines to step up flying between the two countries, although it is not clear what prompted the move. Source: The Loadstar
Longshoremen’s Union CUPE Local 375 rejected the final offer from Canada’s Maritime Employers Association (MEA). The MEA has now imposed a lockout of all striking employees which will severely hamper operations at the Port of Montreal. Source: The Loadstar. This is expected to cost the Canadian Economy an estimated $55m (C$76m) per day. The Canada Industrial Relations Board ordered the Port of Montreal to resume operations as of Saturday morning.
Volumes on the TPEB trade have remained strong amid fears of tariff increases and the threat of ILA strikes in January 2025.
The Port of Long Beach moved nearly 1 million TEUs in October, marking its busiest month in its 113-year history.
Unseasonal demand has presented in the Asia-Europe trade. General rate increases on 1 November and a new round of FAK pricing due on 15 November reflect increased demand for capacity. Source: The Loadstar
Port congestion continues in Hamburg due to operator HHLA’s modernisation program, forcing carriers to drop sailings into Germany’s largest port. Hapag-Lloyd, which owns a 25% stake in CTA, said that in combination with backlogs associated with the three-day US east coast stoppage and the Red Sea crisis, the CTA modernisation program was forcing it to drop some Hamburg calls, switching them to Wilhelmshaven, in which the carrier also has a 30% stake. Source: The Loadstar
French rail workers have lined up a double-whammy of strikes in the Christmas build-up, with a 37-hour walkout for a fortnight this month and an indefinite follow-up next month. CFDT-Cheminots, CGT-Cheminots, Sud-Rail, and Unsa-Ferroviaire unions confirmed their intention to strike for 37 hours on 20 November. Source: The Loadstar
Freight rates from Shanghai to Rotterdam increased 2% or $89 to $4,043 per FEU and those from Rotterdam to New York inched up 1% or $34 to $2,658 per FEU. Source: Drewry
Spot rates on the Asia to Europe trade route are expected to increase next week as carriers have announced GRIs starting mid-November.
Spot rates are elevated globally and are up 25% year on year (YoY) out of Asia Pacific in particular, as the fourth quarter peak season continues. Spot prices from the biggest worldwide origin region, Asia-Pacific, rose by a further 6% WoW to $4.43 per kilo, with the second-largest origin region, Europe, showing also a 6% WoW increase to $2.49 per kilo, based on the more than 450,000 weekly transactions covered by WorldACD’s data. Rates from Central & South America (CSA) rose even more steeply, by 10%, to $2.04 per kilo, with prices from North America recording a 5% increase, to $1.83 per kilo. Source: Air Cargo News
Capacity out of China remains tight, with e-commerce continuing to dominate. Pre-book 7 days ahead where possible.
Currently, airlines are over capacity. This has caused a huge cargo backlog at Shanghai airport.
Both rates and space are getting tight now, most of the airline's space will not be stable and rates will be increased again and again due to a heavy backlog.
The space for BNE and SYD (ex PVG) is particularly tight. Bookings are on stand-by for more than 3 flights. Space before 24/Nov is fully booked.
SZX capacity to AU is fairly open this week. Rates with CZ remain the most competitive option.
CZ will release a new direct service to PER from 28th November.
Boeing has predicted that global air cargo traffic will double by 2043. The market is anticipated to expand by 4.2% annually over the next 20 years. At the heart of this growth lies a dramatic surge in consumer demand - particularly e-commerce and consumer expectations regarding delivery speed and efficiency.
Explorate News.
We're thrilled to share that our partnership with The Sussan Group has won the Australian Supply Chain and Logistics (ASCL) Big Data, IT & Business Intelligence Award. The Award celebrates organisations who are achieving significant advancements in supply chain efficiency through the strategic application of digital technology, data, and business intelligence.
This recognition underscores the incredible partnership we’ve built with The Sussan Group and the transformative power of data and technology in supply chain management. As Explorate Co-CEO Conor Hagan shared on the night, "This recognition underscores the potential of technology to redefine standards in retail supply chain management. By addressing critical challenges like data ownership, visibility, and sustainability, our partnership with The Sussan Group has demonstrated how businesses can thrive amidst rapid industry changes, setting a benchmark for excellence that benefits the entire market."
In 2025, Chinese New Year falls earlier than usual - running from January 28 to February 4th. Supply Chain managers will need to prepare for prolonged factory closures and the flow-on effect for production timelines and shipping schedules. Shippers seeking 2025 contract rates, will also need to bring negotiations forward to account for the disruption. View critical closure dates and more in our blog.
Typhoon Man-yi displaces massive numbers of people in the Philippines. Typhoon Man-yi slammed into the eastern island province of Catanduanes on Saturday night with sustained winds of up to 195 kilometers (125 miles) per hour and gusts of up to 240 kph (149 mph). The country’s weather agency warned of a “potentially catastrophic and life-threatening situation” in provinces along its path.
Severe weather continues to strike Spain. Meteorologists predict heavy rainfall, snowfall, and winds exceeding 100 km/h in several northern regions from Wednesday 20 to Friday 22. Areas including Galicia, Asturias, Cantabria, the Basque Country, Navarra, and parts of the Pyrenees are expected to bear the brunt of the rainfall, with some regions seeing accumulations of over 90 litres per square metre. Localised flooding is likely, especially on Thursday as a second storm front intensifies.
Extreme weather events have struck the eastern seaboard with parts of Victoria ravaged by bushfires and storms wreaking havoc across New South Wales.
With 17 years of expertise in fixing and improving supply chains across Australia and the globe, I know what insights businesses need to stay proactive and ahead of disruption. Consider this your go-to resource for staying informed and making smarter logistics decisions. Ready to strengthen your logistics operations? Let's get started!
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