Tropical Cyclone Alfred is expected to make landfall this week. The Bureau of Meteorology is warning the category 2 system could cross the coast between Bundaberg and northern NSW on Thursday. The cyclone is currently about 465 kilometres north-east of Brisbane and tracking south-east at 13 kilometres per hour. The worst conditions are likely to be felt just south of the cyclone, with possible daily rainfall totals of up to 600 millimetres. Source: ABC
Australian Terminals:
Under Harbour Master’s orders on Tuesday, all commercial shipping was directed to evacuate the Port of Brisbane by this morning, and vessels are now steaming up and down the coast, mostly north of the port. Earlier, the port was closed to all inbound traffic, inner and outer anchorages were closed and several conditions imposed on those at berth until at least Wednesday; subsequently superseded by the evacuation direction. Maritime Safety Queensland tables indicate at least 12 vessels departed yesterday and this morning, though it is not clear how many are continuing voyages. Source: DCN
There is potential for vessels to be re-routed from Brisbane, or omissions by carriers to avoid severe weather conditions.
Flights will be grounded while conditions are dangerous, with the potential for cancellations.
Patrick Terminals:
Imports operating as normal today and tomorrow (day shift), but expected to close from the end of day shift tomorrow, 4th March 2025.
Exports suspended until further notice.
DP World:
Imports operating as normal until closure at 2300hrs tomorrow, 4th March 2025.
Exports are suspended until further notice.
Hutchison Ports & AAT:
Imports continue operating as normal until further notice, likely also until the end of the day tomorrow, 4th March 2025.
Exports are suspended until further notice.
Several empty container parks have ceased operations due to safety concerns. Source: Consol Alliance
The knock-on effect of Cyclone Alfred will be felt in Brisbane. We can expect significant delays and backlogs across all terminals. This will also impact air cargo and all local deliveries.
With the port closure, all vessels destined for Brisbane will be delayed and/or re-routed. This will impact the vessel’s loop, delaying the overall transit time. This could mean vessel bunching at certain ports and the carriers implementing congestion surcharges as a worst case scenario.
Most Brisbane and Gold Coast businesses will be closed on Thursday and Friday to ensure staff safety and keep people off the roads. This extends to logistics service providers, CFS locations, and transport depots. Please be prepared for delays and remain patient as operations resume. Safety is paramount.
How we can Help.
We’re closely monitoring the situation and will keep you informed as it unfolds.
✅ Track your shipments in real-time via the Explorate app.
✅ We’ll communicate directly if your shipments are affected.
✅ Need urgent freight support? Contact your Key Account Manager or Operations Specialist.
For Non-Explorate Users:
🔎 Track your cargo from any forwarder for live status updates. It's free and all you will need is your Container, MBL or MAWB number.
Stay safe, and don’t hesitate to reach out if you need assistance.
Asia to Australia Freight Rates (See More: Explorate)
Rates:
The Northeast Asian market has been in a constant free fall for the past few weeks.
Carriers are battling to secure bookings, with rate levels changing almost daily.
Shekou, Nansha, Ningbo, Qingdao, Shanghai, Yantian have all reduced to levels of approximately USD425.00 per TEU on the NEAX (HMM/EMC/ONE) service.
The CAT/CA2 (EMC/PIL/YML/SNL) service is slightly higher at USD475.00 per TEU, except out of Southern China, which mirrors the NEAX rate levels.
The premium A3/JKN (Cosco/OOCL/ANL) services remain elevated in comparison at USD625.00 per TEU.
OOCL has advertised a GRI of USD300.00 per TEU, effective 15th March, which will increase their rates to the USD950 - 1000 per TEU mark.
ANL has advertised a GRI of USD300.00 per TEU, effective 15th March ex Northeast Asia to Australia.
MSC’s March GRI of USD500.00 per TEU failed to materialise due to lack of demand. They have yet to advertise another increase at the time of publication.
The Southeast Asia market has been slower to respond, but rates are also on the decline. Levels are currently USD800.00 per TEU upwards.
Drastic measures will be taken to raise freight prices - the first blank sailings and capacity reductions are underway. It is a supply and demand game. If the carriers remove or reduce the supply, the demand increases. Be prepared!
The Drewry WCI composite index decreased 6% to $2,629 per 40ft container, 75% below the previous pandemic peak of $10,377 in September 2021 and lowest since May 2024. Source: Drewry
Capacity:
TS Lines will downsize all of their vessels from April.
TS Lines has pulled 4000 TEUs out of the market in the second half of March.
COSCO has pulled 2 x 6000 TEU vessels during the same period.
Carriers are starting to roll out blank sailings ex China.
CAT service is blank sailing week 11.
CAE service (Evergreen) is blank sailing in week 13.
ZAX service (Gold Star Line) is blank sailing week 10 (this week’s sailing).
This reduction in capacity will tighten available space for shippers in early March. We are well aware that carriers have been unsuccessful in attempting to increase freight prices for the past few weeks. By removing capacity and limiting the available number of TEU in the market, their GRIs then hold some weight.
Reports have shown that congestion is starting to impact Chinese ports due to poor weather, fog closures, and berthing delays. Shanghai, Ningbo, and Qingdao seem to be most affected.
Singapore and Busan have also been reported to have operational delays. Extended waiting time and a heavy influx of incoming vessels is exacerbating the issue.
Linerlytica shows global port congestion watch below.
Schedule Reliability:
Asia to Australia Transit Times (See More: Explorate)
Schedule reliability has stayed largely within 50-55% range. The January 2025 score of 51.5% is the same as in January 2024. On a M/M level, schedule reliability dropped by -2.1 percentage points. The average delay for LATE vessel arrivals decreased by -0.01 days M/M to 5.32 days, which is the lowest that the delay figure has been since July 2024, and is lower than across all pandemic impacted years.
Maersk was the most reliable top-13 carrier in January 2025 with schedule reliability of 55.0%, followed by another 6 carriers with schedule reliability over 50%. The remaining 6 top-13 carriers were within 46-50%, with Yang Ming and OOCL at the bottom with 46.6%.
Rates:
Rates on the TPEB trade are declining rapidly, with flat demand post CNY.
Freight rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles decreased 11% or $411 to $3,477 per 40ft container, closely followed by the rates on Shanghai to New York which decreased 10% or $533 to $4,593 per 40ft container. Source: Drewry
Rates from the USA to Australia have not fluctuated much in recent weeks. Ex USLGB to AUEC, rates currently sit in the vicinity of USD2700 - 3000 per FEU.
Capacity:
Capacity is open with ample space on the TPEB trade.
No known issues for shipments departing from the US at present.
Schedule Reliability:
Members of the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) on Tuesday overwhelmingly voted to ratify the new master contract with port employers represented by the United States Maritime Alliance. The extension to the master contract is retroactive to Oct. 1, 2024, and runs through Sept. 30, 2030. The approval vote gives ILA members a 62% pay raise over the six years of the contract, accelerated raises and improved benefits. The pact allows terminal operators and ocean carriers to introduce limited automation equipment in container handling linked to guarantees that protect union jobs. The vote ends a bitter fight over automation on the docks that featured a strike that shut down container and vehicle handling for three days this past October. The work stoppage cost the U.S. economy as much as $2 billion — nearly $1 billion just at the Port of New York and New Jersey alone. Source: Freightwaves
There is ongoing terminal congestion in the New York/New Jersey area, impacting carriers, terminals, depots, truckers, and customers, industry-wide. Driven by high import volumes, service changes, severe weather, and recent labor uncertainties, terminals are operating at full capacity with limited depot space. Source: Hapag Lloyd
Severe weather in Canada has eased, with rail restrictions lifted. There are still delays for import dwell times, with most rail terminals 10 days+. Yard utilisation is also high.
Savannah has berthing delays up to 7 days. Terminals are still recovering after the impact of a winter storm earlier in the year.
US Tariffs:
Tariffs of 25% from Mexico and Canada into the US are scheduled to go ahead from 4th March. Trump’s commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, said on Sunday that US tariffs on Canada and Mexico will go into effect on Tuesday, but the president would determine whether to stick with the planned 25% level. Source: The Guardian
US President Donald Trump said that the US will impose an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports starting 4th March, compounding the initial 10% rate that took effect last month.
A 25% tariff on steel and aluminium imports is also scheduled to commence on 12th March. The US is the world's largest importer of steel, with Canada, Brazil and Mexico its top three suppliers. Canada also provided more than 50% of the aluminium imported into the US in 2024. Source: BBC
Which products will be affected and will prices increase?
All goods from China worth more than $800 are covered by the 10% tariff.
All steel imports from around the world face a 25% tax.
Economists warn that firms selling imported goods are likely to increase prices for US consumers, to cover the cost of the duty.
If the measures against Mexican and Canadian imports go ahead, items they produce are also expected to become more expensive.
Car manufacturing could be hit extremely hard. Vehicle parts cross the US, Mexican, and Canadian borders multiple times before a vehicle is completely assembled.
The average US car price could increase by $3,000 because of the import taxes, financial analyst TD Economics suggested. Source: BBC
Europe to Australia Freight Rates (See More: Explorate)
Rates:
Rates on the FEWB trade are trending down.
Rates from Shanghai to Genoa fell 2% or $90 to $3,747 per 40ft container and those from Shanghai to Rotterdam and Rotterdam to New York reduced 1% to $2,586 and $2,374 per 40ft container, respectively. Source: Drewry
Rates out of Europe to Australia remain stable, with OOCL/Cosco offering the most competitive options at approximately USD900-1000 per TEU.
Capacity:
There will be a steady reduction in capacity from week 10 on FEWB trade. There is weak demand overall, with additional blank sailings scheduled for March.
MSC is relocating its megamax (19,200 and 24,300 TEU) vessels from Far East-to-North Europe services to the Far East-Med and Asia-West Africa trades to benefit from rising spot rates. Source: The Loadstar
Despite ceasefire in the Middle East, carriers remain cautious in resuming transits via the Suez Canal. Since mid-January, less than 45 Container Ships have crossed the Suez Canal in either direction per week. 77.6% of those were sub-Panamax Container vessels of less than 4,000 TEU capacity. Megamax Container Ships of 18,000 and more TEU capacity are still an extinct breed as far as Suez Canal traffic is concerned and we're approaching a full year since the last vessel of this type traversed these waters. Source: Alphaliner
Schedule Reliability:
Europe to Australia Transit Time Trends (See More: Explorate)
Strikes at French terminals are causing significant vessel delays and high yard utilisation. Following a spate of stoppages this month, unions have announced an intensive programme of industrial action for March. A 72-hour strike is planned between 18-20 March, four-hour walkouts on 4, 6, 10, 12, 14, 24, 26 and 28 March, and overtime work and one-off shifts will also be affected. This year, French ports, in particular Le Havre and Marseille-Fos, have experienced four-hour work stoppages almost every two working days, according to a spokesperson at one forwarder which has offices in both the country’s biggest box ports. Source: The Loadstar
Rotterdam’s ports are being impacted by strikes which are causing significant delays in vessel, rail, and truck movements. Sources confirm that the terminal is operating at 50% of its usual capacity, with disruptions expected until an agreement is reached. “Since the evening of Sunday, February 9 2025, there have been work stops at various times. Union members will continue to take further action to strengthen their CLA demands. FNV Havens urgently calls on our European comrades to stand in solidarity with the dock workers at Hutchison Ports Delta II in the Port of Rotterdam. Should vessels destined for Hutchison Ports Delta II reroute to other ports, we kindly request that you refrain from handling these vessels due to contaminated work.”
The heavy demand on several European ports has resulted in cargo diversions to Antwerp. Severe yard congestion and extended waiting time has caused the Port of Antwerp to enact emergency operational measures. Current wait time is 84 hours.
At the time of publication, Brisbane Airport remains open and operational. Airlines are offering passengers options for flight changes as Cyclone Alfred continues its trajectory towards the coastline.
E-commerce continues to drive airfreight demand with prices increasing post CNY.
Rates ex CAN (Guangzhou) are approximately USD2.90/kg for +1000kg shipments.
Shanghai space into SYD/MEL is booked out quickly. Please forward book where possible.
Rates ex PVG (Shanghai) currently USD2.50/kg (SYD), USD2.40/kg (MEL), and USD3.25/kg (BNE) for +1000kg shipments.
PEK (Beijing) rates currently USD2.90/kg for +1000kg shipments.
A two-day strike by workers at Munich Airport, Germany’s second-biggest, started Thursday and resulted in most flights being canceled. The airport operator said airlines had canceled about 80% of their flights to and from Munich and further cancelations were not ruled out. Hamburg Airport was also impacted, although to a lesser extent. Source: AP News
Global Cargo-Tonne-Kilometers (CTK) rose 3.2% year-over-year (YoY) in January, marking a year and a half of consistent expansion. Adjusted for seasonality, demand posted a 3.1% month-on-month (MoM) increase.
International CTK grew 3.6% YoY, with most major regions and trade lanes recording single-digit gains. Airlines in the Latin America and Caribbean region saw the strongest growth at 10.0%, the only region to reach double digits. Among trade lanes, Europe-North America led with a 9.7% YoY rise.
Global air cargo capacity, measured in Available Cargo Tonne-Kilometers (ACTK), increased by 6.8% YoY in January. Cargo Load Factor (CLF) declined to 43.9%, the lowest in 17 months.
Jet fuel prices fell 11.2% YoY, continuing a decline that began in July 2024. Meanwhile, global air cargo yield remained on an upward trajectory, rising 7.0% YoY, a trend that began in June 2024, but dropped by 9.9% MoM. Source: IATA
General News.
MSC continues holding the largest market share at 20.2% of the global capacity. With its orderbook now containing 130 purchased units, hitting 6.4 m TEU of total fleet capacity is imminent. Maersk’s fleet capacity surpasses 4.4 m TEU. The Danish shipping giant consolidates its Top 2 place with nearly 740 vessels in its fleet, giving it a market share of 14.3%. While its owned tonnage is now at nearly 2.6 m TEU of capacity, its chartered fleet is more numerous in vessel count, now totalling over 400 individual ships. Source: Alphaliner
With 17 years of expertise in fixing and improving supply chains across Australia and the globe, I know what insights businesses need to stay proactive and ahead of disruption. Consider this your go-to resource for staying informed and making smarter logistics decisions. Get yours in your inbox - subscribe via LinkedIn or get in touch.
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