Asia to Australia Freight Rates (Source: Explorate).
We have seen a steady decline in market pricing post Chinese New Year. FCL levels have dropped to levels varying from USD900 - 1300 per TEU in February, ex base port China to the East Coast.
Rates into the West Coast vary from USD1200 - 2000 per TEU.
South East Asia shows similar rate levels, varying from USD1200 - 1700 per TEU into both the East & West Coast.
The Drewry WCI composite index decreased 2% to $3,364 per 40ft container, 68% below the previous pandemic peak of $10,377 in September 2021, but was 137% higher than the average $1,420 in 2019 (pre-pandemic). The average YTD composite index is $3,711 per 40ft container, $835 higher than the 10-year average of $2,876 (inflated by the exceptional 2020-22 Covid period). Source: Drewry
Capacity:
Chinese ports were highly congested in the lead-up to the New Year holiday. There was a significant surge in berth and gate congestion, further exacerbated by demand into the US to beat potential tariff increases. This led to roll pools with many carriers. Operations are expected to improve significantly during the holiday period.
We are seeing disruptions at various Asian ports - Shanghai and Shekou have a vessel wait time of 2-5 days. Cap Mep terminal in Vietnam also has delays of approximately 7 days.
Singapore has significant congestion - with approximately 55 vessels currently in port, and a further 180+ vessels due to berth within the next 7 days. There is an expected delay of 7+ days to berth, tying up almost 450,000 TEU of cargo.
Railway strikes are heavily impacting Bangladesh supply chains. Movement of all freight trains from the port remained suspended from the 28th January following a countrywide strike enforced by Bangladesh Railway train crew. A total of 1049 TEUs are currently sitting stranded, exceeding the yard capacity. There is already a significant backlog of containers idle at Chittagong/Chattogram port. Source: The Daily Star
Vietnam is growing in popularity as a supplier hub. Vietnam’s manufacturing output has grown solidly since 2016 as a solid alternative to China. Vietnam is a perfect alternative for Australian businesses, with free trade also in place. It also offers similar transit times into AU as vessels departing from China. Vietnam is a far more attractive alternative for import into the US. With little to no tariffs, it offers a huge financial advantage.
Schedule Reliability:
Asia to Australia Transit Times (Source: Explorate).
December saw global schedule reliability drop by -0.9% to 53.8%. 2024 saw an average schedule reliability within the 50-55% range.
The average delay for late vessel arrivals dropped to 5.28 days, which is the lowest figure since July 2024.
In terms of carrier reliability, Maersk topped the scale with a schedule reliability of 60.4%. Majority of the carrier pool were in the 50-60% range. Wan Hai was the least reliable carrier at 47.9%. Source: Sea Intelligence
Rates:
Export rates from the West Coast USA to Oceania are currenty sitting at levels of approximately USD1800 per TEU
East Coast rates vary between USD1500 - 2000 per TEU.
Rates from Shanghai to New York decreased to USD6288 per FEU, while the West Coast (Los Angeles) sits at USD4771 per FEU. Source: Drewry
Capacity:
There was a predicted reduction in demand due to Chinese New Year on the TPEB trade. Capacity is expected to decrease throughout February.
Schedule Reliability:
Described as the heaviest snowfall in over a decade, winter storm warnings have been issued in 12 states, including Washington, Colorado, Idaho, California, Utah, Nevada, Oregon, Montana, Wyoming, Minnesota, Alaska, and Michigan. Additional winter storm warnings extend to Montana, Nevada and California, with significant snow accumulations expected. More than 2,300 flights have been cancelled, with nearly 9,000 delays also reported. Delays will be inevitable.
Severe weather on the US Atlantic coast has impacted vessel movements and held up ships heading to and from the US East Coast.
Containerised exports from 18 Asian countries to the US hit an all-time high of 21.45m TEU in 2024. This was largely due to front loading as shippers rushed to avoid industrial action and looming tariff increases.
Rates
Europe to Australia Freight Rates. (Source: Explorate)
Import rates out of Europe are stable, with price indications of approximately USD1100 per TEU into Australia.
Freight rates from Shanghai to Rotterdam decreased 5% or $160 to $3,274 per 40ft container, while those from Shanghai to Genoa fell 4% or $162 to $4,400 per 40ft container. Source: Drewry
Capacity:
With the newly launched Gemini Cooperation (Maersk + Hapag Lloyd), a total of 3.4 million TEU and 290 vessels will be in rotation throughout the TPEB, FEWB, and TAWB trade.
While a Gaza ceasefire is a huge win, carriers will exercise caution before returning their vessels to routes via the Red Sea. We can expect vessels to be routed via the Cape of Good Hope in the short term. This will continue to extend overall transit times and impact services globally.
Port strikes are occurring in France led by the CGT union. Dock workers staged a strike on 30 and 31 January which was preceded by four-hour walkouts on 27 and 29 January. Walkouts are also planned for 4, 6, 10, 12, 14, 18, 20, 24, 26, and 28 February. Source: Rail Freight. Operations are heavily disrupted and will likely impact both inbound and outbound vessels.
Schedule Reliability:
Europe to Australia Transit Times (Source: Explorate)
The new Gemini Cooperation claims that they will offer schedule reliability of >90%, with 3.4 million TEU capacity.
Severe weather around the English Channel has impacted vessel movements and held up ships heading to and from northern Europe. UK ports were especially affected, with Felixstowe, Southampton, and London Gateway all forced to shut, with weather warnings persisting through this week. Furthermore, workers in French ports and at ECT Rotterdam have started industrial action, slowing operations. Source: The Loadstar
Carriers and terminals are preparing for disruptions amid extreme weather conditions across Northern Europe. Several storms have struck, impacting the English Channel and the Bay of Biscay. With high winds and rough seas now tracking east toward Hamburg, Antwerp, Rotterdam, Le Havre, Dunkirk, Felixstowe, and Southampton. We can expect delays, schedule disruptions, and restricted vessel mobility until the weather passes. Source: JOC
An early Chinese New Year impacted typical demand with average full-market worldwide prices gaining +4% in week 4. This was 11% higher YoY and driven by strong e-commerce demand and a push to move goods out ahead of the holidays.
Tonnages from Asia Pacific origins regained another +2% in week 4, taking them +6% above their levels this time last year, although they remain around -8% below the peak levels reached in week 49. Average spot rates from Asia Pacific rose by around +3%, WoW, to $3.78 per kilo, a year-on-year (YoY) gain of +24% – although YoY comparisons are complicated by the timing of Lunar New Year, which comes relatively early in 2025 on 29 January compared with 10 February in 2024.
After their normal end-of-year seasonal drop, Asia Pacific to Europe tonnages rebounded strongly for the third consecutive week, regaining a further +10% in week 4 (WoW) and taking volumes back up close to their high levels of mid-December – and around +5% up, YoY. China to Europe tonnages have also rebounded back up close to their levels in mid-December, regaining +11%, WoW, in week 4 and taking them +12% higher, YoY. Spot rates from Asia Pacific to Europe (US$4.32 per kilo), China to Europe (US$4.29), and Hong Kong to Europe (US$5.15) were broadly stable in week 4.
Asia Pacific to the USA is fairly similar, with spot rates edging back upwards (to $5.30 per kilo from Asia Pacific and $4.49 per kilo from China) after declining for several weeks from their very high levels in December – when they peaked at close to $7 per kilo. Compared with last year, Asia Pacific to USA spot rates are up by +28%, whereas China to USA spot rates are now up by just +5% YoY. Demand-wise, after their normal end-of-year seasonal drop, tonnages from Asia Pacific to the USA have rebounded in weeks 2, 3 and 4 to a level that is around +11% higher than in week 4 last year. Source: Asian Aviation/World ACD
The fast growing ecommerce market has led to China’sair cargo volumes reaching an all-time high of 20.06m tonnes in 2024 – up nearly 20% on the 16.8m tonnes carried in 2023. Overall, capacity increase out of China was 25%, with Shanghai airport the busiest of all. PVG handled 3.77m tonnes last year, up 10%. Shanghai is emerging as somewhat of an aviation hub, with the airport now covering 291 destinations in 48 countries. Source: The Loadstar
Airfreight demandcould take a hit following the suspension of Section 321 in the US. The de minimis entry process for goods under USD$800 in value, allowed inbound shipments to avoid any applicable duty. While previously there was $0 duty for de minimis shipments and a minimal, if any, customs broker fee, now there would be an entry charge of $15 to $50. And then you add the tariff – which in the case of a $500 shipment of Chinese electronics goods would be a further 25% to 35%. In this example, the price of a $500 phone from China, for example, would rise by at least $140, likely more. Source: The Loadstar
This week the United States announced new tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China:
Canada and Mexico face a 25% tariff on imports into the US
Chinese goods are subject to an additional 10% tariff.
The removal of the Section 321 de minimis customs exemption means shipments under US$800, often e-commerce orders, will now be subject to tariffs.
All three countries responded with their own tariff announcements:
China has imposed tariffs ranging from 10-15% on key US exports, including crude oil, LNG, coal, and agricultural machinery.
Canada has introduced a 25% tariff on $155 billion of U.S. goods, with $30 billion taking effect immediately and the remaining $125 billion set to be enforced 21 days later.
While Mexico’s tariffs have been postponed for now, retaliatory measures are likely should negotiations with the US not result in a resolution.
Retaliatory action and concessions around border force commitments from both Canada and Mexico led to tariff postponements:
The US delayed Mexico’s tariffs by one month following discussions with President Claudia Sheinbaum.
Canada and the US have agreed to postpone their reciprocal tariffs for a month.
Despite these changes, trade among these economies is expected to continue, with businesses adjusting their supply chains accordingly.
Optimism after a ceasefire in Gaza is unlikely to change the shipping landscape in the short term. CMA CGM said in a statement on January 25 that the improved stability was “a positive but fragile sign” for the industry, and that it would continue to prioritise alternative routes. Before returning to the Suez Canal, container lines will want to see a prolonged period of stability around the Red Sea. This is due, in part, to safety and security concerns related to the crew, cargo and the ship. Source: The Conversation
ATSB Report Exposes Safety Gaps After Brisbane Breakaways. An Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) investigation has revealed significant gaps in emergency and risk management procedures after two container ships broke away from their moorings at the Port of Brisbane in May 2022. The incidents occurred after unprecedented rainfall and controlled dam releases caused strong currents in the Brisbane River. The OOCL Brisbane broke free from berth 10 at Fisherman Islands on May 16, followed by the CMA CGM Bellini from berth 6 four days later. Source: GCaptain
DP World and NSW Port are transforming the logistics capability of Port Botany in Sydney, investing A$400m to extend the rail terminal and improve capacity. DP World’s investment in the port alongside NSW Ports is set to more than double its capacity to handle up to one million TEUs per annum. Key benefits of this latest investment include:
Enhanced capacity, increasing from 400,000 TEUs to one million TEUs annually.
Improved environmental impact by reducing truck movements and carbon emissions.
Improved logistics efficiency will deliver growth across key sectors including agriculture, manufacturing, construction, retail and ecommerce. Source: Supply Chain Digital
With 17 years of expertise in fixing and improving supply chains across Australia and the globe, I know what insights businesses need to stay proactive and ahead of disruption. Consider this your go-to resource for staying informed and making smarter logistics decisions. Get yours in your inbox - subscribe via LinkedIn or get in touch.
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