Carriers were optimistic that rates would be increased mid-December, however, they are reluctant to adhere to the advertised GRIs. This has now resulted in increases from the 22nd December - 31st December as final offers.
CAT/CA2 service (TSL/PIL/YML/EMC/SNL/SEALEAD) was previously highly competitive; however, they are now seeking to increase their margins. Their offer is USD2100 per TEU and USD4200 per FEU until the end of December.
NEAX (A1X), service (HMM/EMC/ONE/HPL) is one of the more direct options for the CN-AU trade lane. They are matching what carriers are selling on CAT/CA2 services, USD2100 per TEU, USD4200 per FEU.
The Panda service (MSC/ZIM) is meeting the market at the same levels of USD2100 per TEU, USD4200 per FEU.
The Premium A3/JKN (COSCO/ANL/OOCL) has offered levels of USD2400 per TEU, USD4800 per FEU for the last 10 days of the year. Their forecasts for vessels into the East Coast are very strong, justifying the rate increases.
West Coast/Adelaide pricing remains at similar levels to the East Coast. We have some competitive options with Cosco for the final weeks of 2024. Please enquire directly.
NAC (Named Account) season is upon us! 2025 will bring a different landscape, with many carriers offering less volume and allocation than they have previously. Cosco will not be offering any named accounts on a collect basis in 2025, with other carriers finalising their plans later in January.
Special spot pricing ex Hong Kong to AU East Coast is available for the following sailings in December. Rate: USD1350 per TEU. 14 days free time. Please book with your customer service representative.
LCL pricing remains stable for the remainder of 2024, with competitive spot options on offer.
Drewry’s World Container Index remained stable at $3,529 per 40ft container this week. The Drewry WCI composite index remained stable at $3,529 per feu, which is 66% below the previous pandemic peak of $10,377 in September 2021 but 148% more than the average $1,420 in 2019 (pre-pandemic). The average YTD composite index is $3,949 per feu, which is $1,091 higher than the 10-year average of $2,858 (inflated by the exceptional 2020-22 Covid period). Source: Drewry
GRIs
The majority of carriers have advertised GRIs from the 1st of January.
MSC: rate restoration for all cargo from China, Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan to Australia. Quantum: USD500.00 per TEU. This is effective from the 1st January 2025.
MSC: rate restoration for all cargo from China, Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan to New Zealand. Quantum: USD300.00 per TEU. This is effective from the 1st January 2025.
ANL: rate restoration of USD500 per TEU from North East Asia to Australia East Coast, Fremantle, Adelaide & New Zealand. This takes effect from the 1st January 2025.
Australian Ports:
Terminal slot bookings are at full capacity across many of our ports.
DP World recently implemented its new time slot management system, Optibook. The system's launch has encountered significant operational challenges, particularly regarding the booking of import time slots prior to containers entering storage. This resulted in several challenges for transport operators, with many containers ending up in storage.
WA terminals are experiencing significant pressure on terminal capacity, with facilities operating at peak volumes. To manage this situation, terminal's are emphasising the crucial importance of advance booking submissions.
Several shipping lines have announced increases to local port charges in Australia from the 1st January 2025. This will vary between carriers.
Terminals in Australia have announced several cost increases from 1st January, 2025. This varies between operators, but can be summarised as follows:
Patrick’s:
Terminal Access Charges (Imports): +9.5%
Terminal Access Charges (Exports): +3.5%
VBS and ancillary fees: Increase of up to 7.77%
DP World:
Terminal Access Charges: +10%
Vehicle Booking Service and ancillary fees: Increase of 10%-25%
VICT:
Terminal Access Charges: +4.18%
VBS and ancillary fees: Increase of 0%-20%
Capacity:
MSC will begin making direct Port Adelaide calls with its recently launched Koala service, restoring South Australia’s import links with Asia. The new rotation will start with the MSC SIJING FP451A, ETD Shanghai on 18 December 2024.Shanghai – Hong Kong – Jakarta – Fremantle – Adelaide – Shanghai
TSL will launch 2 extra vessels in early January, ANL also arranged one extra vessel in late December.
The JKN/A3 (OOCL/ANL/Cosco) service will have a blank sailing in week 52.
Schedule Reliability:
The schedule reliability of major container carriers oscillated between November 2020 and October 2024. In May 2023, about 73.5 percent of the ships operated by Maersk—who topped the list as the most reliable container carrier this month—arrived at their destination on time. This represents a significant improvement in schedule reliability compared to 2021 and 2022. Unfortunately due to various disruptions in trade routes, such as the Red Sea crisis, schedule reliability fell dramatically in 2024, where Maersk showed 57.9 percent reliability. Source: Statista
Several vessels had similar departure times in week 50. However, due to the carriers' adjustments, some vessels were delayed for approximately a week, resulting in a reduction of about 60% of the loading capacity in week 50. Most of the cargo was delayed, so we predict that space will become restricted over the next two weeks, with container roll pools increasing.
Customers and carriers alike are preparing for the impending ILA negotiations in January. While we can expect a heavier redirection to the West Coast, this has yet to impact rate levels.
Trump has backed the dockworkers, which could assist with the union winning concessions in the ongoing battle. The union, the International Longshoremen’s Association, has been unable to reach an agreement with port employers over the use of automated equipment at the docks. It remains likely that another strike will take place mid-January if an agreement cannot be reached. More information can be found here.
For each day the dockworkers strike, it results in approximately 5 days of delays/congestion.
There is already significant congestions at LA/Oakland ports. There have been reports of up to 2 week delays impacting exports out of the USA.
With Trump taking office on the 20th January 2025, many businesses are waiting on the outcomes of substantial tariff hikes out of China, Canada, and Mexico. Trump said that on his first day back in office on Jan. 20, he would impose 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada. The tariffs are aimed at pressuring those countries to stop drugs and illegal migrants from crossing into the U.S. He has also said he’ll impose an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports to fight drugs coming from that country. Source: Freightwaves
Many customers front-loaded cargo this year, in anticipation of significant changes to tariffs and industrial action. We will not see the true impact of this until after the holiday season.
Space on the TPEB trade remains tight into the East Coast, with the West Coast still open.
There is a shortage of reefer containers in the US, with perishable exporters struggling to obtain equipment. There are reports of serious shortages of reefers at the ports of Houston, Philadelphia, and Virginia. This has been largely blamed on a double-digit surge in refrigerated imports from Asia, led by a 30% increase in seafood. Source: The Loadstar
Rates from Los Angeles to Shanghai and Shanghai to New York inched up 1% to $726 and $5,199 per FEU. On the other hand, rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles decreased 4% or $137 to $3,582 per FEU. Source: Drewry
FEWB has a total capacity of approximately 330,000 TEUs. This has been reduced by approximately 36,000 TEU in the second half of December. Vessels are full but we are yet to experience the rush ahead of Chinese New Year.
Effective from 13th December 2024, the EU has updated its General Product Safety Regulation (GPSR) to replace the 2001 General Product Safety Directive. It applies to all consumer goods except specific exclusions like food, medicines, living plants, pesticides, aircraft, and antiques. Source: Maersk
Ocean rates from Asia to Europe and the Mediterranean increased last week, with prices of US$5,300/FEU to Europe. Carriers will aim to push rates higher on mid-month GRIs, hoping this trend will only intensify as the late January holiday gets closer. Source: Container News
Freight rates from New York to Rotterdam increased 3% or $23 to $830 per FEU and those from Shanghai to Rotterdam increased 2% or $80 to $4,855 per FEU. Rates from Rotterdam to New York shrank 1% or $27 to $2,622 per FEU. Source: Drewry
Global air cargo demand showed no signs of slowing down in November as volumes recorded a 13th consecutive month of double-digit growth and load factors hit their highest level since April 2022, according to the latest market analysis by Xeneta.
Demand rose +10% year-on-year in November, fuelled by the continued boom in e-commerce. This, coupled with only a marginal +2% growth in air cargo capacity, contributed to global air cargo spot rates (valid for one month) also reaching their highest level in nearly two years at USD 2.90 per kilo, a sixth consecutive month of double-digit year-on-year growth.
This persistent supply-demand imbalance of 2024 pushed the dynamic load factor in November to 63% - its highest level in over 30 months. Dynamic load factor is Xeneta’s measurement of capacity utilization based on volume and weight of cargo flown alongside available capacity. Source: Xeneta
Air capacity out of Shanghai is increasingly limited, with a backlog of cargo destined for Australia.
SQ remains the most cost-effective option, however, the second leg to Australia is tight and risks offloading.
Capacity out of Shenzhen is now readily available, with rates now dropping below USD3.00 per kg with some carriers.
In 2025, we expect airlines’ revenues to surpass the evocative USD 1 trillion mark. The top-line growth and lower fuel prices should translate into higher profitability. We forecast a net profit of USD 36.6 billion—a record high for the industry—at a still meager 3.6% net profit margin. Load factors are likely to remain high as supply chain issues will continue to impact 2025 and beyond. Source: IATA
Airlines are projected to achieve an all-time high in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTK), with demand expected to increase by an impressive 11.8% YoY in 2024. This remarkable growth follows two consecutive years of declining air cargo volumes as the industry adjusted after the exceptional pandemic peak. The surge in demand has been primarily driven by robust cross-border e-commerce and, to a lesser extent, capacity limitations in ocean shipping. Given these strong growth catalysts, along with a relatively positive macro-economic outlook, demand is expected to continue to rise significantly in 2025. Source: IATA
General News.
Commencing 15th January 2025, PIL will be making changes to how they calculate import & export detention.
Import free time will be calculated from the vessel departure day from the port of discharge.
Export free time will be calculated from (and inclusive of) the day the empty container is collected from the depot.
Taking out the coveted award of ‘Port or Terminal of the Year’ 2024 was Port of Townsville. Established in 1864, Port of Townsville has positioned itself as a leading exporter of copper, zinc, lead, sugar, fertiliser and molasses, a strategic defence port and growing cruise port. See the full list of winners here.
As we wrap up the final Freight Market Update of the year, we want to take this opportunity to thank you for supporting our market updates in 2024.
We’ll be taking a short break from publishing over the holiday period, but we'll be back bigger and better in 2025.
From all of us at Explorate, we wish our valued customers, suppliers, and partners a very Merry Christmas and a safe, prosperous New Year. Enjoy the holiday season, stay safe, and we look forward to working with you again in 2025!
With 17 years of expertise in fixing and improving supply chains across Australia and the globe, I know what insights businesses need to stay proactive and ahead of disruption. Consider this your go-to resource for staying informed and making smarter logistics decisions. Ready to strengthen your logistics operations? Let's get started!
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